Alternate Title: No One Ever Said This Game Was Easy. The inspiration for this tip comes from a stupid bet I made over the past Fourth of July weekend at a track that will remain nameless
....because it doesn't make any difference whether it's the leaky-roof circuit or one of the better racetracks in the world: the problem of horses stretching out remains the same for handicappers everywhere. 

Young horses--two year-olds and early threes--can be scrutinized by pedigree and trainer records, which seem to be getting easier to access and understand all the time. While this is no guarantee of winning mutuel tickets, in some cases it is possible to discover standouts that the general public overlooks. 

But what of older horses whose past performances simply don't contain enough information to make a truly educated analysis? Pedigree is not everything. These types of runners are not uncommon in all types of route races. At first glance, they pose a formidable problem when the race under consideration is a minor allowance inviting sprinters to stretch out, or starter allowances made up of 3+up fields with only one or two sprinters in a group of routers. 

Some say that because you are "asking a horse to do something he's never done before," you either throw the sprinters out and handicap the routers, or pass the race. If I was forced into this mode of thinking,and had only scant information to use, I would opt for passing the race. 

Truth be told, I have spotted some sprinters who were able to dominate route races and pay excellent prices---but not without a lot of work. The work consisted of making detailed pace figures and adjustments for every level of race at every distance, further categorized by age, sex, and surface, and keeping a model of the track pretty much the way Tom Brohamer details in Modern Pace Handicapping. With accurate adjustments, it is not difficult to tell which horses can meet the demands of a particular racetrack to be successful at greatly varying distances.

This is the best way to tackle this problem, but unless you play only one track, and are willing to maintain the information required, it may be too much to ask most players. My last big score with this approach was several years ago when I handicapped a maiden horse coming off a terrible race at 5 or 5 1/2 furlongs on the grass at Hollywood who I predicted would win going a mile and an eighth on the dirt in his next race! He won, paid $65, got me well for Hollywood and I left the rest of the meet alone. 

So is there a less demanding way for the recreational player to take a meaningful stab at a play in such situations? Yes! Canadian handicapper Randolph Reynolds offered some casual suggestions based on a large number of races he studied about twenty years ago, and I believe his ideas stand the test of time. 

Reynolds says to watch for horses that show "good closing power" in their last races...."where a horse finishes well back (fifth or sixth) and where today's race is extended in length." This does NOT mean an obviously strong close from the stretch call to the end of the race, as many handicappers think! It means a good, closing run from beginning till end, while still finishing out of the money...such as a horse running at five furlongs who breaks dead last (without noticeable trouble) and is 11th by 11 lengths at the first call, and gradually advances to finish 5th or 6th by, say, 7 lengths. 

Obviously, this is a rather loose guideline that will not satisfy players who are only comfortable handicapping within more defined limits. 

I think that by the time a time a horse is four or has had more than 15 races (or both, obviously), if he has not run in one or two route races, or has with poor results, his connections don't have a clear enough idea of where the horse belongs for me to risk my money. Even on the secondary circuits, where trainers enter their hot sprinters thinking that maybe the horse can hang on past six furlongs to steal a mile race, the bet is too risky. The stats show that in the long run (no pun intended), most horses can only win within a small range of distances. It IS asking a lot for most horses to go an extra furlong, much less make a successful transition from one distance structure to another without a perfect pace setup. 

The truth of this came home personally the other day when I ignored this sage wisdom and saw a horse who won his last, a $15,000 claimer at six furlongs, by 6 1/2 lengths, leading all the way. His last three races (all sprints) boasted pace and speed figures that were way above par for his class. The route race he was in, a 1 mile & 70 yards Starter Allowance for starters at $10,000 or less during this year and last, was his first ever at age 4 in his 20-race career. Greed got the better part of me, when the tote board hit 4-1. Breaking from the one hole, could he build up an insurmountable lead and coast home? 

Not even being the only sprinter in the race! The early-running router right next to him caught up with him before six fourlongs had been run. They hooked, of course, and cooked, and set it up for a router who won his last race, moving from 7th by 4 lengths in a field of ten to a 1 1/2 length win (moving in much the same way Reynolds describes the sprinter who can route would win). 

No one ever said this game was easy.