On major and minor circuits alike, it's not unusual to find a claiming race every now and then in which most of the horses are dropping in class, looking for a level at which they can race competitively. 

You know the type of horse that enters this type of race: a horse whose last win came 7, 8 or more races back; a horse who has bounced around up and down in the next two (or more) higher claiming levels, always runs evenly or the same style but never comes close to winning. Profile: a horse that needs a drop to run well again. If there is an edge, where is it in this type of race? 

Let's look at the seventh race at Hollywood Park for Friday, June 7. It's a mile and a sixteenth on the dirt for $16,000 claimers. Of the seven horses in the race, 4 are dropping from higher claiming prices ranging from $20-35K, and one from a $62.5K starter allowance. One stays at the same level, one is moving up from a 3 1/2 length win at $12.5 and one comes in from a $12.5K starter allowance. 

The horse moving up has done quite well at the next two lower claiming levels. The one from the $12.5K starter allowance has been claimed three times in less than a year, always seems to flash early speed but has to have an easy lead and no challenge to win. All of the droppers have good records for last year but lousy ones for this year. 

No one has any real edge in speed or pace figures. I know that my usual class handicapping factor, earnings per start, will be a little dicey because of the terrible current-year records of most of the horses. 

Time to dig deep or pass the race. Check out the trainers and jockeys. DUCA, the horse coming from the $62.5 starter allowance, is trained by Barry Abrams, who has a 24% win record for the meet. Hmmm, Corey Nakatani is up. He has a 24% win record also, and replaces the horse's regular rider. That's interesting. 

Wait a second here...look at DUCA's overall pp's...he's been racing primarily in straight allowance races and starters, better races than the other horses he's meeting today have been racing in. But his last couple of races look terrible, with a next-to-last place finish on the grass last out, his workouts are nothing great, and he hasn't won in two years! So why is this guy handled by such a potent trainer-jockey team? 

Let me try one other traditional factor for class handicapping to see if I can find the edge I'm looking for. If not, it's hot dog time. 

Holy Mackerel, THERE IT IS! DUCA has found the level and a bunch of horses he has a shot at! And it's hidden so well, it's worth a bet. 

The edge is in APV - Average Purse Value - of the races DUCA has been in. His seemingly lousy record of 1 show in 4 races this year and 1 place in 9 races last year was earned in races with an average purse of almost $55,000 ! The next closest is $41,900, with the rest all much lower. DUCA has been competing against the Big Boys unsuccessfully, running way over his head. He's finally at a level where he should have somewhat of an edge. I know he's fit because he's been running regularly for three months and just spinning his wheels. 

There's good news and bad news. DUCA won the race all right...but he paid just $7.80. Seems like so little for such a seemingly lousy record and so much work to spot him. But that's racing. There'll be other times when this same scenario will produce double-digit winners for anyone who digs deep enough to find it. 

APV has undergone cycles of being considered a valid and invalid handicapping tool. I think we're at a point nationally on the U.S.racing scene where it's valid (because purses aren't changing drastically and inflation is relatively low) to use with confidence. 

(For beginners and the uninitated, APV is calculated by multiplying wins by .6, places by .2 and shows by .1, adding them together and then dividing the money earned by the horse BY this total. The purse breakdowns vary a little from track to track, but .60-.20-.10 are fine for broad calculations. Don't sweat the small stuff - you're looking for situations like the example shown here. Use just the figures for the current year if the horse has had at least six races. Less than 6 outs, use the races and earnings for both this year and last year.) 

Happy digging!