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Handicapping Tips by George Kaywood


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Handicapping Tip #  3:
Early in the Meet: Using Current Condition to Win

There's not a lot of handicapping literature that focuses on the first week or two of a meet, a time when many players without in-depth information have a hard time. 

At Big League tracks (such as Santa Anita, Arlington, Belmont, etc.), the horses are usually just changing addresses at they move around the circuit, so there's no real problem in knowing who's ready and who's not. Large numbers of layoffs are not a part of racing there, as they are in areas where racing is more seasonal in nature. At smaller tracks, for example, without detailed trainer and/or individual horse records, opening week can be a puzzle. 

The SECOND week of such a meet can offer truly incredible bonanzas without having to rely on statistical information. Just like tip # 1 , we'll call on Prairie Meadows, in Altoona, Iowa, for a real-life and very current example. 

Friday, May 17, 1996:  second week and fifth day of the meet. 

The last race of the evening: a six-furlong run around one turn for three and up $3,000 claimers which had not won a race yet in 1996. 

The field of eleven was made up of: 

4 horses who were making their first start of the year, none of whom showed decent workouts, with riders and trainers who had not yet hit the board since the meet began the preceeding week. 

4 horses shipping in who were making their first start at the meet. They had all been running regularly but looked like chronic quitters or horses that just didn't want to win (remember what the conditions of the race were). 

3 horses who ran on opening night, just a week earlier. One led to the half-mile before tiring, a reasonable race. Another finished a comfortable second by two lengths. And the third finshed comfortably behind our second horse. These horses all ran pretty good races for their first crack at the track, and held an obvious edge in condition in this lowly batch of runners. 

The public made two of the erratic shippers co-favorites at just over 2-1. They finished fourth and fifth. 

And the three with the out over the track from the previous week finished 1-2-3 at odds of 8-1, 7-1, and 7-1, respectively! I rarely play trifectas, but when I realized what an edge these three horses had, I had to go for it. 

The $2 tri returned $1,169.00 and my $1 tri box paid $584.50. 

A little too simple? Not at all. Even when the racing is cheap, classic handicapping can produce great mutuels even in the opening days of a meet.
 

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