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Handicapping Tip #14
The Buzz on the Bias

Recently, the Internet's Derby List has been abuzz with discussion about "track bias." Some say there's no such thing...some try to quantify it using numbers and/or pars...and some offer hybrid explanations. 

Is there such a thing as track bias ? I've always thought the question was a lot like the one that someone once asked Louis Armstrong: "What IS jazz?" Satchmo replied with a grin, "Man, if you have to ask, you'll never know!" 

To me, there are several different types of track bias which, rightfully, are all included in that one broad term. They are: 

* Track Conformation Bias
* Surface Bias
* Running Style Bias

TRACK CONFORMATION BIAS has nothing to do with the actual surface of the track itself. This is the bias that comes about because of the tightness of the turns, size of the track itself, placement of the gate, length of the stretch and one or two other such parameters which don't (and can't) be changed very much. 

SURFACE BIAS is another relatively inclusive term that is made up of: 

--- The daily effect of weather on the track (comparable to a "fast" or "slow" track as roughly determined by pars.) This is often the only variant considered by many players. 

--- The effect of track maintenance on the track. The grounds crew can roll a track, packing down the surface to make it harder and faster, dig it up to slow it down, and use water to try to strengthen or diminish either one of these effects. 

This bias can change from race to race as well as from day to day, and can be dramatic after a couple of dark days. 

RUNNING STYLE BIAS is the bias that dictates whether front-runners, stalkers, or closers are winning most of the races, OR whether the track favors speed horses or not. 

Note that front-runners and speed horses are not necessarily the same animals! Often, they are, but not always. (We can argue pace and terminology some other time.) 

Running style bias is created by the other types of biases. I've never used numbers to "detect" it; I just watch where the winners and up-close finishers are coming from, and I do so over several days. One is not enough to declare a bias. 

Before I declare a bias, I look at: 

1. How the winners are winning-front runners, stalkers, closers. Does one style really dominate the others over 3 or more days? 

2. How the winners are running. Are any stalkers overtaking dueling speedsters? If not, then I consider a strong bias favoring speed AND front-runners, for example. 

3. The distribution of odds. If only low-priced favorites are winning, regardless of style, then I downgrade any tendency towards a real bias. 

4. Where on the track are the winners winning? Rail? Outside? 

From time to time, on both wet and dry tracks, I've seen horses begin to run faster when they hit a particular patch of ground in the stretch. The surface in that area is more condusive to running than the lanes next to it, and can move up a tiring horse as if by magic. Amazingly, most riders don't seem to take advantage of this, but the few that do can send you to cash tickets on those days where the right set of circumstances appear. 

I've always felt that bias is easier to spot at small tracks than at larger ones. 

So how do you measure all of these biases? How do you break them apart and record them? 

I don't. 

I just know they're there, and make a general note such as "seemed neutral," "closers dominated," "frontrunners folded badly all day," and so on. When the track can change from race to race because of maintenance and water, when you realize that horses of superior class or exceptional fitness can overcome these things to win, defying a pattern that has been there the rest of the card, it's more sensible to go with a general tendency than to try to quantify it with a number. 

One of the best pieces written on this is 20 years old! It's the Huey Mahl article "Track Variant", part of the regular feature "Calculatin' Racetracker" in Vol. 19 of Systems and Methods. Huey's other short but significant work, The Race is Pace also offers more about track bias and variants. Both have been reprinted many times since the 70's because they're just plain good and still apply today! Copies are available at very reasonable cost from Gambler's Book Club in Las Vegas. 

As Huey points out, there's one other variant, or bias, that is not actually part of a track bias, but is still there , and is a factor we don't like to think about: the variance in the running performance of the horse itself. If you fail to judge this properly, the argument over whether there really is such a thing as a track bias becomes meaningless! 

Is this a great game or what?

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