To be a horseplayer, you must a little touch of masochism inside yourself. For the verbally impaired, "masochism" is, more or less, enjoying hurting yourself. 

My latest encounter with this temporary insanity came, I'm sorry to say, on Breeders' Cup Day this year (1996). 

The scene of this unenjoyable self-flagellation was the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, the race for the alledgedly best 2-yo's in racing. In case you don't remember, a field of 11 were going postward for a million dollar purse over a mile and a sixteenth on the dirt at Woodbine. The winner was the Wayne Lukas-trained BOSTON HARBOR, who I had summarily eliminated as a contender when I handicapped the race the night before. 

Never mind the reasons why I preferred others; let's look at why I didn't like Boston Harbor: 

*  Did not fit the training and racing pattern of Lukas' wins in this race
*  Earnings grossly overinflated thanks to a Kentucky futurity win
*  Wins seem to have come over somewhat lesser competition
*  No Grade I races in horse's record
*  Best races show easy wire-to-wire wins and no evidence of ability under pressure 

 Sounds pretty solid, eh? 

But I overlooked something so obvious, I should have been slapped in the face by a rank beginner: 

Boston Harbor was the ONLY true early speed horse in the race!

He had two wins at the distance in which he set and controlled the pace and was clearly the only confirmed frontrunner in the Juvenile. One of the few "golden" rules in handicapping says that when one horse in a race is the solo speed in the race, it's time to head to the mutuel windows. 

This is one of those great examples that once again unerscores the importance of SOLO speed in a field, even in a route. There are few racing situations that boil down to ONE dominant factor, but this was one of them...and it was so obvious, I couldn't see it. 

Don't let it happen to you!