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Handicapping Tips by George Kaywood


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Handicapping Tip # 12
Is That the Tote Board I Hear Talkin' ?

Does the tote board really talk? Yes, but it takes patience to hear it. Listen first to the people around you.... 

"Look at that horse! He just dropped from 20-1 to 5-1! Someone must have dropped a bundle on him!" 

"Ahhhh, he should be lower than 8-1. He's ice on the board." 

"I just CAN'T bring myself to bet a public favorite." 

....and then ignore them all. There are several situations in which the tote board talks that it will pay you to listen: 

(1) THE UNBALANCED WIN-PLACE AND WIN-SHOW RATIOS 

 When the ratios between the amounts bet on a CONTENDER to win and place or win and show are out of whack, pay attention. The only time that place and show bets should be high in proportion to win bets is when the borse is odds-on.If a horse that figures--especially the favorite--has, for example, 20% of all money in the total win pool bet on him to win, and you see that he only has 10-15% of all money in the place pool bet to place (and similarly for the show pool), this means that someone is betting heavily on that horse to win. 

That "someone" traditionally is supposed to be the stable connections, since the reasoning goes that when they're serious, horsemen bet to win, not to place and show. The public usually spreads its money around less drastically in the place and show pools, so it would seem there is some logic to the argument. 

I like this situation for purposes of playing a long-term (say, a month of so) show parlay. You won't see it pop up every day, but most of the horses will try very hard when it happens. The action will be limited but pretty solid if you confine your plays to this situation. 

(2) UP OFF A LOSS, LOWER ODDS TODAY 

Strictly an angle, but with reasoning that over time will expose a trainer as a good manipulator of horse flesh, or a real loser. The setup is when a contender lost his last race and is being raised in class today, with lower odds than in his last, cheaper, losing race. I wouldn't call this a coup, but logic does say that unless the horse "needed" the race (the race was used to round the animal into shape), he should be running at higher odds today. Maybe the inside action on the tote is coming from someone who knows--and that ain't the public. 

(3) AINSLIE'S "BIG FAVORITE" ANGLE 

I can't say this any better than Tom Ainslie did in 1968! 

"If one horse is heavily bet and its odd fall below 8-5, any contender whose odds do not rise is worth backing. When the odds on the favorite drop, the odds on the other horses should rise. If the 4-1 or 5-1 shot holds steady when the favorite drops from 5-2 to 7-5, you know that many people have been buying tickets on the longer-priced animal." 

"Again, good handicapping is the key. If the favorite looks to you like a sucker horse, and you like another, the steadiness of its odds is an indication that other smart players feel the same way." 

Keep in mind that the size of the pools may affect these tips in odd ways. If you're at a small track with an overall small handle, it takes less money to affect the tote than at a major track. Depending on the time to post, a single bet of $20 or $50 may cause the tote to dance a little faster. 

Conversely, when you see some of the movements described in these tips at someplace like Santa Anita, you'd probably do well to pay attention when the tote board talks to you.

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