Tote Board Analysis: Following the Stable
Kenneth Lempenau

When your choice has been selected on the basis of past performance records, this work can be confirmed by the tote board.  If you are correct in your determination of all the factors which went into making your selection, you may be following a parallel trend of thought with the stable.

Up to this point, you have studied those factors in the past performance records – now we will confirm our selections using betting action.  There are many different types of indicators that can be scrutinized through the use of the tote board.

For example, a horse may open with odds of 10-1.  Steady dropping of the odds when written down as they change, will reveal something like this:  10-9-7-6-4, meaning that the horses’ odds dropped from 10-1, to 9-1, to 7-1, to 6-1, etc.  This steady dropping of the odds may indicate that a horse, on the basis of his past performance record, had odds that were out of line in the estimation of the betting public.  It is rare that the odds on a horse with a good chance, so obvious in the past performance record to the extent that a public betting streak will start on such a horse, will open at such long odds as 10-1.  Therefore, a steady drop from high odds indicates, as a rule, “informed money”.

It is more likely that the odds of a horse with an apparently good record in its past performance will open at 5-1 or less.  In a case of this kind, the odds may decrease as follows:  5-1, 4-1, 3-1, 5-2, 2-1 or less.  This again indicates “informed money” or public betting support.   One must then analyze such betting trends to determine whether such betting action is truly smart money action or just a betting trend based on handicapping factors.

If the horse’s record shows itself to be an outstanding contender in comparison to its field, if it has good races in the money, if it is consistent, etc., then the betting may be public.  However, if the horse has only a record of consistency without good recent races, or the factors in the form are such that the player would not give the horse as good a chance as the odds reflect, then the betting is probably “informed money” and this is a good spot for the serious bettor to consider,  providing the odds are higher than 2-1.

A sudden large wager on a horse may be placed with a consequent dropping in odds on the horse for one or two odds board changes.  For example, the odds may change thus:  25-20-18-20-22-25.  (Note the zig-zag pattern underlined).  This type of wager generally will come only from insiders who wish to bet a limited amount and who, having made this bet through the mutuel window, have finished their wagering.  A closely related type “pattern in betting” is a change or two, the dropping of the odds for a number of changes and then a rise, thus:  20-18-15-12-10-12-15.  Here again the indication is that betting is being done by individuals with knowledge not held by the average handicapper.  The betting may go something like this in the lower odds range:  7-6-5-4-5-6-7.  Note the drop in the odds as the insiders put their money down and then the odds rise when they are through betting.

Betting patterns of this type can be used to spot smart money plays.   Add a few “tighter rules” and you will be making steady trips to the cashier’s window!

Ken Lempenau has been actively engaged in horse racing for over 30 years.  He is the author of the new published book, “Analyzing Professional Betting Action – Speed & Pace Angles, Tote Board Action & Value Betting”, which is available in the Handicapping.com Handicapper's Bookstore.  He also provides a weekly service, which tracks “insider wagering” on tracks throughout the country.