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Death of the Tote Board-Part 2
by George Kaywood

Reader reaction came flying in via email after my article proclaiming the tote board to be dead as a handicapping factor. To be sure, good headlines inspire visitors to read entire articles, and a punchy, attention-getting title provides the motivation to take that next click. 

First, here's what David Zager wrote in response: 
 

Dear George: 

As a "semi-professional" thoroughbred investor (I play the horses every day via the Internet or through a telephone wagering account while holding down a full time 'day job') I read with great interest your article entitled "Death of the Tote Board." 

I must respectfully disagree with your contention that the Tote Board has lost its value as a handicapping tool.

 I've been using the Tote Board as a valuable weapon in my handicapping arsenal for the last 10 years.

 Several years ago I wrote a computer program that imports every change of the "Super Tote" into an Excel spreadsheet, enabling me to keep a "past performance record" of odds changes for every horse and every track that I follow.

 Imagine what a powerful tool it is to be able to go back to a horse's last 10 races and check the Tote action the runner received! Additionally, I have been able to identify key wagering patterns for different trainers and owners as well as "live" money that hits at different times during the course of the wagering period.

 By comparing the Tote action to Exacta and Pick Three figures, I've been able to greatly increase my bottom line. 

As far as late money going into the pools after a race has begun, I agree that it does indeed "skew" things a bit. But after checking my records for a two year period, I found that the instances of dramatic odds fluctuations after the last bell, such as in the example you cited in your article, were rare, certainly not enough to pronounce the Tote Board a valueless handicapping tool. 

Please accept this response not as a criticism, but as another point of view in a widely diverse field of study.

No criticism taken, and thank you for an intelligent and well-written response. 

Here's another, from Diane Shear: 
 
 

Dear George: 

I read with extreme interest your latest column. I couldn't agree with you more. 

I took the liberty of posting it (with your name of course) on a couple of the horseracing message boards, and it got an interesting response. 

Many will be in denial about this subject. It is like telling people speed figures are meaningless. 

Thanks for writing it.

From these responses, I would infer that both responses are valid and do not necessarily contradict each other. 

David's record of performance and discovering truly unique information--specifically key wagering patterns for trainers and owners--shows that what many players regard as an unlikely niche can be developed into a profitable handicapping method in a game where edges can be very hard to find. 

Are the tracks you play major or minor ones, though David? While Diane does not say where she plays, obviously, my contention that the last-flash added money makes a significant difference to players at some tracks struck a chord with her. 

Now let me add this to the stew: I read David's response and Diane's note just before I headed out to my local simulcast center to play Fair Grounds yesterday (Sat 12-16-00) and watched the tote board much more carefully than usual, thanks to their emails! And I found that the late money coming in after the race had started did in fact not make that huge a difference this time around as I have seen in prior weeks at other tracks (Meadowlands being one of the worst offenders). 

Maybe there's more life in the tote board than I thought. Is it a phenomenon that varies with track size, just as consistent speed figures and class rankings can vary? 

I wish I could give you a neat answer. It will only come from people like David who do it for many tracks for a substantial period of time. But let's be real; if someone does have that information, knowing they have latched onto something that isn't watered down by large numbers of people using it, are you and I going to hear about it? 

Don't think so! 

Thanks to David and Diane for continuing the conversation. 

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