Trainer statistics
can be categorized into two groups: general and specific. The general ones
are the ones for last year and/or the year to date that appear in the Daily
Racing Form past performances and usually in the pp’s provided on the Internet
by various racing information sources. Specific stats detail a trainer’s
record in different categories of specialization such as “first start after
90 days,” “distance change: route to sprint,” and so on.
General trainer
stats, except for very early in a meet, include all types of races and
therefore only tell you that some trainers are pretty good overall, average,
or bad. These stats can be very misleading and generally are not a good
basis for a bet or the basis of any angle plays.
Specific trainer stats
can sometimes generate spot plays that are very profitable.
I moved to Omaha in
1981, when Ak-sar-ben was one of the top ten tracks in the country (and
when there were no such things as specific trainer stats unless you kept
them yourself), I noticed one trainer, R.E. Lee, who seemed to be an average
trainer who seemed to score irregularly but noticeably in 6-furlong sprints
at odds of 5-1 or better with horses that didn’t figure strongly on paper.
I decided to dig a little.
I found that of this 18% overall winning trainer’s races, 80% of his wins
came in exacta races (in those days, only 3 races a day featured exacta
wagering) using one of two particular jockeys, after two races at
higher class levels which were generally looked horrible in the pp’s. The
crafty R.E. Lee had found his own highly profitable betting niche and followed
his pattern faithfully, because it was successful. The stats became the
basis for an automatic bet, which showed a profit at the end of the meet.
Easy handicapping? More or less.
The same type of plays
can be found today, as well as using good trainer stats to narrow down
your serious contenders or decide how to allocate your per-race bankroll.
So the question becomes:
which stats are the best?
Several national information
vendors sell trainer stats categorized in excruciating detail. Several
problems are built in: (1) Paralysis by Analysis. Information overload—just
too much information to be absorbed or used without the luxury of lots
of time to handicap. Sure, you can use a computer to zero in on a specific
strength or weakness, but that leads to (2) The deception of percentages.
A trainer who hits 50% of his races in a certain category should be a champ….unless
the 50% is a one win for two races situation.
If it was 50 wins in
100 races, then we’re talking a CHAMP! Matter of fact, what is a good winning
percentage? 15%? 20%? 35%? And over how many races? Tough subjective
questions that only you can answer for yourself. (3) What’s in a Name?
Some trainers will always use the same name when entering horses. A. Trainer
may always sign his name “A. Trainer.” Some will use “A. Trainer,” “Albert
Trainer,” “A. H. Trainer,” or “A. Trainer, Jr” at different times (your
guess is as good as mine as to why), creating 4 or 5 different records
when each name is recorded. No small amount of human backtracking
is needed to determine if the listings reflect 4 different people or just
one person!
One of my friends is
a professional handicapper who I have known for years, who prefers
to remain anonymous. His nickname is Spotplay, because that’s what
he’s best at. Spotplay decided to compile and maintain his
own trainer statistics after he bought a couple of nationally advertised
sets of computer- generated stats. One set included several major trainers’
stats for ALL circuits on which they raced, instead of their regional records
with different strings of horses. Another actually included as current
information stats for a trainer who died five years ago!
Spotplay developed
his own master list of consistently competent trainers across the U.S.,
region by region, focusing on strengths and “massaging” the numbers to
produce dependable figures (such as weighting averages for the past
few years, so that a trainer who was spectacular in one year but terrible
before and after is graded accordingly).
Rather than use race
number and percentages in his results which he uses for handicapping, he
lists the trainers by region, then notes their strengths with simple codes.
Particular strengths are noted with boldface type. Finally, jockeys who
win consistently for the trainer are noted, along with any personal notes
that warrant attention.
Here are some examples
from his West coast section:
CHAMBERS, MIKE
OFF D1 D2
T/D drop weak on turf
HENDRICKS, DAN L
ALL OFF Lay1 Lay2
D1 Claims turf1 is a prep
JACKSON, BRUCE L
DBD Gomez
Codes:
ALL – Very good overall trainer. OFF – Good on off tracks. D1 – 1st lifetime
start. D2 – 2nd lifetime start. T/D – turf to dirt surface switch. Drop
– big dropdowns in claiming races. Lay1 – 1st out after 90+ days. Lay2
– 2nd out after 90+ days. DBD – betting action with D1 and D2. Turf1 –
1st lifetime start on grass.
Spotplay’s object in
devising this list and especially this format is to avoid wasting time
considering horses trained by trainers who are occasionally lucky but generally
losing trainers.
To me, his way of creating
and using trainer stats is a lot easier and more accurate than the computer-generated
ones. Sorry, but Spotplay does not make his work available for sale to the
public.
I hope you will
come away from this article with enough of an awareness of the strengths
and weaknesses of trainer stats and perhaps some pointers on keeping your
own if you spot one or two that you think warrant following for your own
handicapping purposes.