While I get email from time to time asking for more sophisticated information for advanced players, the vast majority of messages come from handicappers whose ability ranges from beginner to somewhere in that big area best labeled "less than expert." 

(And remember the definition of  expert: someone who seems to know a little more than you do, lives more than 50 miles away, and uses slides.) 

Even with simulcasting, this time of year (winter) produces a fair amount of gloom for people who live outside the southern latitudes, and that's a BIG chunk of the country. It's a good time to regroup, so to speak, take a hard look at what you did handicapping-wise in the preceeding year, review the basics and modify your handicapping approach, if needed, as we all get ready to move into the prime time of racing across the country when the weather favors racing everywhere at the same time. 

Much of this series is inspired by the handicapping classic, Ainslie's Complete Guide to Thoroughbred Racing. by Tom Ainslie. It's one of the few books on racing that contains ideas that weather the passing of time very well, with few becoming totally outdated. 

The Big Four

I love the term that Ainslie uses to describe where all handicapping should begin: "the fundamental launching pads of handicapping."

1. Suitability to distance. The simple truth is that the winning range of most horses is severely limited. Each year, there certainly are a few superstars who can romp in sprints and also stretch out to dominate in routes as well. But these are truly the exceptions to the rule, and most will be found in the best of the best races. It's easy to forget to ask yourself if a trainer has entered a horse into a race purely as a freshener that will not include any type of real effort. 

2. Condition. For many, the most challenging part of the handicapping puzzle. Form cycles don't conform to consistent, easy-to-spot patterns.Obviously, recency is an important factor. Workouts (usually for better horses) combined with trainer stats--often ones that need to be much more detailed than many of the off-the-shelf ones widely available nowadays--should be used when necessary-another judgement call that varies from player to player. Running lines and  running trouble: forgivable or not? No single answer is correct, and what works best for you can only be determined by keeping records-something that most players simply will not do. Amazing, because it's one of the most valuable edges you can have. 

3.Class. Here's one where Ainslie and I part company. He says that "the purse is not the thing." I disagree. In these days where purses at many tracks are supplemented by slot machine revenue, driving up purses way beyond what they had been at the same class level for years earlier, the purse IS the thing. No longer is a $10,000 claimer at track A roughly the equivalent of a $10,000 claimer at track B. Also, the class-within-class phenomenon, "non-winners of n races....," once found only at cheap tracks, appears regularly on the major circuits. I lean heavily toward using purse values to determine the class of horses and the class of race-more than traditional claiming values. And believe me, this is a major change for me, having used the traditional claiming values in combination with average earnings for many years. 

Special note: the Handicapper's Daily, the online equivalent of the DRF sold by ITS, is the only source I know of that includes the purse value for all claiming races in its pp's. If you know of another like this, please let me know so I can include this information in future writings. 

4. Suitability to today's racing surface/track bias. Fortunately, one of the easier--but still very important--"launching pads" that can help handicappers to keep or throw out horses as contenders. Easier, because players have access to much more information today than in years past to determine the likely answers to these ponderables. 

We'll look at some of the factors in each of these categories in detail in this four-part series. To be sure, nothing dramatic, or revelatory in nature, but a good, solid review of the ideas that no sucessful handicapper of any caliber can overlook. Just right for this time of year!