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Ainslie's Fundamental Launching Pads
Part 4: Footing and Biases
by George Kaywood

In his four-point list of the most important handicapping basics, Ainslie lists the combination of today's footing and prevailing track biases as the final factors to be considered in tandem. 
 
While he suggests including pace, the depth of that factor warrants much more in-depth consideration, so we'll wrap up this series with just what Ainslie suggests. 

Today's Footing 

If you keep up with records of various crops of offspring (as the brilliant Lauren Stich does), betting on younger horses whose bloodlines suggest they should prefer one racing surface over another with or without the other "launching pads" can be a viable

approach to handicapping. However, without this highly specialized knowledge, the horse's track record on a given surface MUST be the determining factor in deciding whether or not he can handle today's footing. 
 
Does this seem obviously simple to you? It absolutely amazes me to overhear long-time players talking about whether or not older horses can switch from one surface to another today, regardless of their record! If a horse's connections don't have a good handle on which surface a horse prefers by age 4 or 5, why would you risk even a dollar on him? 

For that matter, the same applies to off tracks. Of course, often, a trainer cannot scratch a horse when the track comes up muddy or sloppy. Mud ratings and well above-average stats on off tracks are the key, and the very best key of them all is your own records.

For example, if you play one circuit solidly and can keep track of horses who run especially well over heavy or drying-out tracks on the circuit, you can make your own spot plays based on this factor alone for those cherry occasions when this ability is not evident in a horse's listed past performances! 

Summing up: the other three factors can be compromised if today's footing is one that the horse has simply not performed well on. 

Track Biases 

Most players look for certain types of track biases and develop a mindset that can blind them to reality. "Is the front speed holding?" may not be the proper question to ask.  "What has the track been dictating in (routes) for the past few days?" Lane, rail or outside path, and even post position biases can be short-term phenomena that can aid your handicapping more than front speed or closer designations. Again, as with the other factors, your own records tell the real story. 

Types of fields affect biases. Green-running maidens may set a race up for a cheap speed (or even slow cheap speed) front-runner three or four races into a card that clearly favors mid-pack to late runners. Throw the race out of your profile, or keep a separate one for maidens only for each date. Watch for patterns and expect them to change after a few days. Staying on top of changes in the running surfaces is something most players simply cannot do. 

Conclusion 

If you're read all four parts of this series, you may come away a little disheartened, and that's good...because in that unease lies the key to winning consistently with good handicapping 

What's disheartening? 

The inescapable realization that winning handicapping takes hard work. 

Personal work, work  you do with pencil and notebook that produces current data that both the Daily Racing Form and the guy next to you at the track do not have. Even in this age of computers, nothing beats doing it yourself for both timeliness and complete understanding. 

Ainslie wrote his Complete Guide in 1967. He chose the term "launching pads" to describe the basics any player needs to formulate a personal winning approach to handicapping. Looking back from 34 years later, as the world watches the construction the international space station, the structure that will ultimately become a launching pad to send out explorers in search of new knowledge about the universe, Ainslie's choice of words was right on the money; his concepts remain rock solid for down-to-earth handicappers launching their own handicapping efforts in the new millenium.

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