Ainslie's Fundamental
Launching Pads
Part 4: Footing and Biases
by George Kaywood
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In his four-point
list of the most important handicapping basics, Ainslie lists the combination
of today's footing and prevailing track biases as the final factors to
be considered in tandem.
While he suggests
including pace, the depth of that factor warrants much more in-depth consideration,
so we'll wrap up this series with just what Ainslie suggests.
Today's Footing
If you keep up with
records of various crops of offspring (as the brilliant Lauren Stich does),
betting on younger horses whose bloodlines suggest they should prefer one
racing surface over another with or without the other "launching pads"
can be a viable
approach to handicapping.
However, without this highly specialized knowledge, the horse's track record
on a given surface MUST be the determining factor in deciding whether or
not he can handle today's footing.
Does this seem obviously
simple to you? It absolutely amazes me to overhear long-time players talking
about whether or not older horses can switch from one surface to another
today, regardless of their record! If a horse's connections don't have
a good handle on which surface a horse prefers by age 4 or 5, why would
you risk even a dollar on him?
For that matter, the
same applies to off tracks. Of course, often, a trainer cannot scratch
a horse when the track comes up muddy or sloppy. Mud ratings and well above-average
stats on off tracks are the key, and the very best key of them all is your
own records.
For example, if you
play one circuit solidly and can keep track of horses who run especially
well over heavy or drying-out tracks on the circuit, you can make your
own spot plays based on this factor alone for those cherry occasions when
this ability is not evident in a horse's listed past performances!
Summing up: the other
three factors can be compromised if today's footing is one that the horse
has simply not performed well on.
Track Biases
Most players look for
certain types of track biases and develop a mindset that can blind them
to reality. "Is the front speed holding?" may not be the proper question
to ask. "What has the track been dictating in (routes) for the past
few days?" Lane, rail or outside path, and even post position biases can
be short-term phenomena that can aid your handicapping more than front
speed or closer designations. Again, as with the other factors, your own
records tell the real story.
Types of fields affect
biases. Green-running maidens may set a race up for a cheap speed (or even
slow cheap speed) front-runner three or four races into a card that clearly
favors mid-pack to late runners. Throw the race out of your profile, or
keep a separate one for maidens only for each date. Watch for patterns
and expect them to change after a few days. Staying on top of changes in
the running surfaces is something most players simply cannot do.
Conclusion
If you're read all four
parts of this series, you may come away a little disheartened, and that's
good...because in that unease lies the key to winning consistently with
good handicapping
What's disheartening?
The inescapable realization
that winning handicapping takes hard work.
Personal work, work
you do with pencil and notebook that produces current data that both the
Daily
Racing Form and the guy next to you at the track do not have. Even
in this age of computers, nothing beats doing it yourself for both timeliness
and complete understanding.
Ainslie wrote his Complete
Guide in 1967. He chose the term "launching pads" to describe the basics
any player needs to formulate a personal winning approach to handicapping.
Looking back from 34 years later, as the world watches the construction
the international space station, the structure that will ultimately become
a launching pad to send out explorers in search of new knowledge about
the universe, Ainslie's choice of words was right on the money; his concepts remain rock solid for down-to-earth
handicappers launching their own handicapping efforts in the new millenium.
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