Ainslie's Fundamental
Launching Pads
Part 3: Class
by George Kaywood
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Class in thoroughbred
horse racing has been defined in many different ways because it is, as
Ainslie said, easy to recognize and hard to define. Class truly encompasses
many other handicapping factors, such as speed, pace ability, horse sense
in the literal meaning of the expression, and more. Perhaps the simplest
way to define class is to say that it is a horse's competitive will
to win as demonstrated by its racing record and/or style.
Cretainly, at least part of a horse's
class is quantifiable, as seen in the prices assigned to claiming horses.
All other things being equal, a $10,000 claimer should easily beat a field
of $5,000 claimers, and in turn, be facing the behinds of most of the field
when facing $25,000 claimers.
But as you know, most of the time
all things in racing are not equal!
Andy Beyer's par, or average, running
times for the most part clearly demonstrate that classier horses run faster
than cheaper ones, and this is certainly a valid way of measuring class
among the claimers. James Quinn's fine work, The Handicapper's Condition
Book, in both its original form and more recent revision, is one of
the best sources for beginners and seasoned pros alike who wish to review
the class factor, especially as it applies to the better animals that race
in allowances, stakes, handicaps, and Graded races.
Let's review some common situations
that have been around for years, but which must be examined in view of
the present state of racing today and put aside the sometimes conflicting
claims that spring from studies of various databases.
CLASS RAISES
In claiming races, I usually assume
a trainer is running a horse over his head primarily to race it into condition
UNLESS the horse showed a sign of improvement that can be the tipoff to
a peak effort coming up. Specifically, I look for uncharacteristic speed
early in the race or a noticeable gain in the stretch. I restrict this
to older horses, 4 and up. Three year olds are truly developing animals
and are often subject to spurts in development that are tough to
detect.
If you play just one track or circuit,
keeping a notebook for the various claiming levels will tell you after
a few weeks if there is any real classdifference between adjacent levels
of horses. At some bullrings, for example, $2,500 and $3,500 horses are
virtually the same group, running one week for one price and the next at
the other!
CLASS DROPS
I generally discount horses that
are dropping in class from win consideration unless they
are being handled by one of the top trainers at the track who I know (from
records) is smart enough to know when he's been placing a horse in to races
that are just a bit too tough. Why? Because you don't take a horse that
has proven it can win at a certain level and offer him for sale at a much
cheaper price unless the horse's ability or health is in question. It really
IS that simple.
"Yeah, George, but what if the
trainer is dropping him to try to 'steal' an easy purse?"
Fine. Let him beat me. If the animal
really does have talent, another trainer will be training him soon, and
the former trainer won't have to chance to do it again, most likely.
MOVING FROM CLAIMING TO ALLOWANCE
(AND VICE-VERSA)
My experience has been that the class
of the track often determines how to handicap this type of horse. At the
biggest and smallest tracks, I generally look very hard at horses moving
from a claiming into an allowance race, if the horse has been a hard knocker
with a good record of wins and places. The trainer and/or owner is trying
for more money via a bigger purse and not afraid to admit it by making
this move. Better yet if (1) the horse loses its first such attempt while
obviously trying, and comes back in another soon after, and (2) if the
field is large, eliminating the possibility that the horse may be a "filler"
to help the racing secretary avoid a 4 or 5-horse race.
From allowance to claiming: once
again, for me, let him beat me--if he can! The move downward indicates
a less-than-adequate ability and a willingness to let the horse go in the
sales sense of the expression. Prove to me the horse should be running
at a cheaper level. There are plenty of simulcast races I can look at and
bet while I watch to see what happens with one like this.
STAKES, HANDICAPS, GRADED RACES
If these races, especially at the
major tracks, are truly offering the best of the best, as usually happens
from just after the Triple Crown races through the Breeder's Cup by my
calendar, the deciding factors are condition and money. Almost all of the
horses in these races are classy animals.
MONEY VALUES AS CLASS INDICATORS
They work.
And they don't work.
This is not doubletalk; it's one
of the best examples of how trying good handicapping can be. Both average
purse value and earnings-per-start can be reliable numerical
indicators of class, IF and only if, you can find the races that have either
ridiculous amounts added for state-bred wins or races at tracks where the
purses are inflated way beyond the rest of the circuit because of slot
machine-supplemented purses.
Small tracks and major tracks have
only a few things in common, but it's at these tracks where money values
seem to have worked best for me. It's easier to follow the money trail
throughout the season and spot the occasional Big Win that can throw off
an otherwise valid figure.
This "launching pad" is a very detailed
one, and these situations represent only the most common ones. No other
factor in handicapping becomes more murky, since age, sex, condition, and
even distance at times are intertwined and almost inseparable from the
class factor. |