This is the first in a four-part series discussing the "fundamental launching pads" of handicapping suggested by Tom Ainslie in Ainslie's Complete Guide to Thoroughbred Racing. 

Without a doubt, assessing current racing condition is the toughest challenge facing any handicapper. Read twenty books on handicapping and you'll find twenty different ways to handicap condition. No wonder beginners are confused when they encounter this handicapping factor. 

Let's look at some of the most popular and most important concepts that come under the umbrella of the condition factor, and try to formulate a workable conclusion to handle it. 

Recent Action

Just as it's a truism that favorites win a third of all races, so is it a truism that 2/3 of all races are won by horses who most recent start was within a couple of weeks of the winning race. But this is no big deal, simply because "2/3 of ALL horses that go to the post have had a race within two weeks!" This, according to Ainslie, as far back as 1968-33 years ago!

Workouts

It seems to me that the most regularly repeated comments one can overhear in casual conversations at the track or OTB made by regular players are variations of  "Workouts don't mean nothin!" or "You can't trust workouts." In Ainslie's book (remember, published in 1968), Tom lists 8 specific ways a trainer can manipulate a workout to be misleading!

This is not to say that all workouts are to be construed as misleading. However, the smart thing for a handicapper to do is to consider the frequency and length of workouts leading up to a race (especially after a layoff), rather than the published times. If you were to take, say, half a dozen trainers whose winning style impresses you and keep a notebook on their racing/workout regimen, you will probably have better information and understanding of the condition factor after one season than 90% of your fellow players. And at smaller tracks, this can be dynamite. 

Layoffs

Perhaps the most mysterious of all sub-factors making up the condition factor. More expensive horses can take time off, as their training regimen consists of being prepped at private farms, where workouts and current condition are known only to close connections. Cheaper horses are laid off for resons of injury, of course, and by smarter trainers simply when an animal needs rest. Again, keeping personal records (which by their nature must be more detailed and current than many, if not most of the ones you can buy off the shelf) is the key to this puzzle. 

It's really annoying to see an animal that hasn't raced in a full year (or TWO, in a few truly rare cases) come back to the races and win at first asking. While the tote board may tell you someone is betting heavily on him--which can lead to a "lemming stampede" by puzzled bettors who want to hedge their bets--common sense seems to tell you a win is unlikely. Best approach: pass the race. Without your own superior records, this is gambling, not handicapping. 

Form Reversals

THE most memorable overheard comment by players is "HOW COULD THAT HORSE WIN? THIS RACE WAS FIXED!" 

Granted, some may be right, whether the "fix" was an out-of-the-movies plot, or creative use of contemporary chemicals, if you know what I mean, and I think you do. However, many seeming reversals of form are nothing more than a trainer--skillfully or accidentally--placing his horse into a race in which the horse holds several edges all the same time--class, speed or pace, and condition--even when it looks like he is competing against similar horses that have beaten him regularly. 

I've had the good fortune (read:after lots of hard work) to catch a couple of these. The most outstanding was a cheap claiming race at Fonner Park, in which a horse was raced into shape for three races, the last of which had adjusted speed and pace ratings (made by me) that showed after the track variant was factored in, the horse, who finished 7th in a ten-horse field, had had a major tuneup and was ready to roar. He was nailed at the wire by the favorite, but the $2 exacta, with him running second at OVER 100-1, returned $729. Others at my tabled muttered "...fix!" but I knew why that horse ran as well as he did. There was no fix, no chemical enhancement. And I mention this in detail to demonstrate that it takes WORK and that you won't find bets like this every day. 

But even once in years is enough, not just for bragging rights but as reinforcement that you can win at the races. 

Deciding whether a horse is running over its head can largely be a part of those personal records I referred to above. With today's super-inflated purses for ultra-cheap horses at tracks where slot machine revenue pumps up purses, your own records are what tells the truth and makes it somewhat easier from a form point of view to have a better handle on condition. 

Cheaper and Better Horses

Better horses keep their form longer than cheaper ones. Workout patterns,coupled with trainer records, usually tell the story if better animals returning from layoffs can pop first time or need a tuneup or two, like their less-well-bred claiming friends. 

Form Cycles

You've seen horses that can hold their form for a long time, as evidenced by their pp's. But what about the ones who go in and out of condition in erratic patterns? The ones that can win a couple in a row, then seemingly win here and there with no discernible pattern? Certainly the class factor comes into play, and juggling class and condition in races like these is a fabulous example of what makes handicapping an art and not a science. From a condition point of view, I look for a horse that flashed early pace or stayed fairly close to the pace in a race following a couple of lackluster, even or worse performances. This is a sign of improvement that must be used by a trainer within a race or two. I love second (and sometimes third) starts after layoffs, and the mutuels are usually better than you might think. 

Of course, this is not an automatic spot play, as we're only talking about ONE handicapping factor. But it can be a great point to start, depending on your circuit. 

Conclusion

Certainly, this is an abbreviated and cursory look at the condition factor. As we begin a new millenium of handicapping, the most sensible approach seem to be made up of several points: 

1. Don't be bound by traditional maxims that include automatic cut-off time periods as strict elimination guidelines. 

2. Try to keep personal, detailed racing/workout records even if just for a few trainers at tracks you like to play. 

3. Do not ignore the factor of condition, but regard it as one of the most "iffy" parts of handicapping. 

Accepting the reality that the condition factor must be judged more subjectively than objectively than  other handicapping factors can be judged, the reality that this factor is the one best called an educated guess, will help keep your overall focus and performance in balance. 

And at worst, it affords a wonderful excuse when it's tall tale time with your handicapping buddies!