Successful Simulcast
Handicapping - Part 2
by George Kaywood
|
(Based on the
article that originally appeared in the July 1995 issue of American
Turf Monthly)
In Part One, we
looked at the unique situations, both good and bad, faced by the casual
but dedicated player whose wagering is done primarily at simulcast outlets.
I presented the
first of several guidelines to use in constructing plays for successful
simulcast handicapping:
(1)Look
for classic spot plays
(2)Play
your strength
Now, let’s finish
the list and put it to work.
3. Insist
on good value. If you do not make your own odds line, set a minimum
price you will accept and stick to it. Time does not allow you to ponder
at length when you’re on-site and taking the toteboard into account, even
in the slightest.
4. Build
your own method based on guidelines 1, 2, and 3. I enjoy playing
more than one track when such a smorgasbord of all types of racing is offered
(as many as 20 tracks 7 days a week at a fine, comfortable simulcast facility
five minutes from my front door) and created my own model for play there.
Playing my strength:
my records showed that I was doing much better in non-maiden sprints than
routes, so I limited the races to even consider to sprints only, distances
from 5 ½ to 7 furlongs on fast dirt tracks.
My most reliable
spot plays were based on contender selection using two classic angles.
First, I used a quick and dirty class analysis by calculating earnings
per start and marked as contenders only those horses which ranked in the
top half of the field. I used the “standard” formula to calculate the average
earnings: if a horse had less than six races this year, use this year and
last year combined to get the figure.
Then, I created
my own odds line based just on average earnings, using all of the
horses in the field and not just my contenders. (Remember, this is all
being done AT the simulcast location. That’s why you select your plays
based on your strengths.)
Next, I rated my
contenders for pace and speed. At the time this article was originally
published, I used the ability times of William Scott as detailed
in his book Total Victory at the Track, and his broad use of the
Daily
Racing Form variant. I have since changed my preferred style of speed
and pace analysis, but the important thing to remember is to consistently
use the approach with which you are most comfortable, that makes sense
and works for you. Unless you’re a full-time player, this is commonsense
handicapping that simply acknowledges the fact that you’re committed to
a life outside the racetrack—or simulcast facility.
Next, I took my
top three contenders and studied them for signs of likely improvement:
second start after a layoff after an even or slightly better race (one
of my favorites); any of Quirin’s indicators (big win, taxing stretch drive,
rallying sprinter, bid-and-hung, carried speed further, surprise early
speed, two moves in last race, closer to the lead. Make sure you know and
understand the full meaning of each of these before you attempt to incorporate
them into your own handicapping. Don’t “see” things that aren’t really
there.
At this point,
with one or two horses left, the odds dictate the bet.
The original sample
day at the races (a Saturday, using three different tracks) that I selected
to track this approach produced a total of 31 possible races, with six
playable sprints. The reduction of a large number of races to just a handful
makes handicapping a lot easier, especially when you are playing your strength.
In this case, I played all six races and cashed four tickets, win bets
only, with the winning mutuels ranging from a low of $11 to a high of $22.40.
Some races were single bets, some were two horses to win.
It doesn’t always
work this way, but any type of planned approach for wagering at a multi-track
simulcast facility will keep your losses low and your sanity intact.
It’s a great way
for the casual player to enjoy a leisurely, rather than a stress-filled
day at the races, sampling a variety of tracks, and avoiding the ranks
of the players who blow their brains out race after race, muttering the
Famous Last Words of horseplayers everywhere: “Woulda, coulda, shoulda…” |