Handicapping.com
Your Thoroughbred Racing Website
The Handicapper's Library


powered by FreeFind

Successful Simulcast Handicapping - Part 2
by George Kaywood

(Based on the article that originally appeared in the July 1995 issue of American Turf Monthly)

In Part One, we looked at the unique situations, both good and bad, faced by the casual but dedicated player whose wagering is done primarily at simulcast outlets. 

I presented the first of several guidelines to use in constructing plays for successful simulcast handicapping:

(1)Look for classic spot plays

(2)Play your strength

Now, let’s finish the list and put it to work.

3. Insist on good value. If you do not make your own odds line, set a minimum price you will accept and stick to it. Time does not allow you to ponder at length when you’re on-site and taking the toteboard into account, even in the slightest.

4. Build your own method based on guidelines 1, 2, and 3. I enjoy playing more than one track when such a smorgasbord of all types of racing is offered (as many as 20 tracks 7 days a week at a fine, comfortable simulcast facility five minutes from my front door) and created my own model for play there.

Playing my strength: my records showed that I was doing much better in non-maiden sprints than routes, so I limited the races to even consider to sprints only, distances from 5 ½ to 7 furlongs on fast dirt tracks.

My most reliable spot plays were based on contender selection using two classic angles. First, I used a quick and dirty class analysis by calculating earnings per start and marked as contenders only those horses which ranked in the top half of the field. I used the “standard” formula to calculate the average earnings: if a horse had less than six races this year, use this year and last year combined to get the figure.

Then, I created my own odds line based just on average earnings, using all of the horses in the field and not just my contenders. (Remember, this is all being done AT the simulcast location. That’s why you select your plays based on your strengths.)

Next, I rated my contenders for pace and speed. At the time this article was originally published, I used the ability times of William Scott as detailed in his book Total Victory at the Track, and his broad use of the Daily Racing Form variant. I have since changed my preferred style of speed and pace analysis, but the important thing to remember is to consistently use the approach with which you are most comfortable, that makes sense and works for you. Unless you’re a full-time player, this is commonsense handicapping that simply acknowledges the fact that you’re committed to a life outside the racetrack—or simulcast facility.

Next, I took my top three contenders and studied them for signs of likely improvement: second start after a layoff after an even or slightly better race (one of my favorites); any of Quirin’s indicators (big win, taxing stretch drive, rallying sprinter, bid-and-hung, carried speed further, surprise early speed, two moves in last race, closer to the lead. Make sure you know and understand the full meaning of each of these before you attempt to incorporate them into your own handicapping. Don’t “see” things that aren’t really there.

At this point, with one or two horses left, the odds dictate the bet.

The original sample day at the races (a Saturday, using three different tracks) that I selected to track this approach produced a total of 31 possible races, with six playable sprints. The reduction of a large number of races to just a handful makes handicapping a lot easier, especially when you are playing your strength. In this case, I played all six races and cashed four tickets, win bets only, with the winning mutuels ranging from a low of $11 to a high of $22.40. Some races were single bets, some were two horses to win.

It doesn’t always work this way, but any type of planned approach for wagering at a multi-track simulcast facility will keep your losses low and your sanity intact.

It’s a great way for the casual player to enjoy a leisurely, rather than a stress-filled day at the races, sampling a variety of tracks, and avoiding the ranks of the players who blow their brains out race after race, muttering the Famous Last Words of horseplayers everywhere: “Woulda, coulda, shoulda…” 

Return to Library Index
Return to Home Page