A Handicapping in
Cyberspace Session
by George Kaywood
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In the last edition of Handicapping
in Cyberspace, I wrote: "You may have read an article or two about
handicapping in the near future, depicting a "typical" handicapper's day
at the races in which the hero, comfortable at home, watches his choice
of races on cable or satellite TV, or even on the Internet. He uses his
computer to help select his choices and then makes his bet either via telephone
account or the 'Net, and sits back to watch his horses win, and the profits
added to his account automatically. Well, it may be like that some
day..."
I didn't think that "some day" would
be here in less than three years!
The traditional player who combines
the new power tools at his disposal with good old-fashioned hardnosed gut-feeling-from-years-of-experience
thinking that can't be duplicated by a machine will still succeed, but
it would be foolish if he did not take advantage of what cyberspace has
to offer.
And computers still can't see the
horses in the paddock and in the post parade to make an assessment of their
current (as in TODAY) fitness. When they can, Joe Takach will be out of
a job!
Let's focus instead on a more typical
contemporary cyberspace handicapping session, using the tools that are
available to see how they all work together to help us cash more tickets.
Our session does not take place at
the same time the races are running. Like a professional, our guy (let's
call him that) sets aside time the night before for handicapping. Let's
say it's Friday night and he has six simulcast cards available tomorrow
because his local track is not running, or because that's what his local
simulcast center offers.
Because he could not attend the races
Friday, Guy stops by the convenience store that evening after dinner to
buy a copy of Saturday's Daily Racing Form.
What?
Yes, the Form. He knows that
it's still fast and easy to flip through the Form, eliminating races
in which he has no particular interest, and making a hash mark here and
there to call attention to things he wants to consider at greater length.
Unless your computer monitor's screen is HUGE, the ability to have all
the horses in front of you at the same time is paper's dominance over electronics
when it comes to handicapping.
Anyway, they're all out of Forms
at the store. No real problem. Guy is prepared.
After getting home, Guy powers up
his computer and logs on to the Internet to download tomorrow's cards for
three of the six tracks that will be running. He figures that realistically,
he'll have time to look in-depth at no more than three tracks enough to
find plays and fashion bets, and may not find more than a few really good
plays anyway.
Which online information service
should he use to get the information? Several will print out a good version
of DRF-style past performances. From his records, Guy knows that the BRIS
speed figs for one of the tracks he's been playing have been particularly
good lately, so he opts for BRIS. After downloading the files, he runs
them through the BRIS PP Generator and has tomorrow's PP's for his
tracks of choice printed out, looking almost exactly the same as the Form
he couldn't get an hour ago.
Before looking at any races, Guy
checks the weather forecast for tomorrow for the cities where all three
tracks are located. Smart idea--it's raining at one now and there's a 90%
chance of rain tonight and tomorrow. Guy writes "WET" on the corresponding
track's printout to alert him to move the turf races to dirt and to change
to an "off"-track mode of thinking when he looks at that track's races
there. If there are no standout plays, maybe later he'll download another
track which won't be sopping wet and make a spot play or two there.
Next stop: the web site for
each track (or the DRF site) to get late scratches, rider changes, and
the program numbers for the horses. Guy makes the changes on his printed
PP's accordingly.
While online, Guy remembers to read
the Edge handicapper's ne3wsletter at the TSN site to get a better
feel for the feature races tomorrow, and to see if there's been a hot rider,
track bias or something unusual enough just from the last couple of days
to warrant any comments. Bingo! Very hot jock at one of the tracks this
week, and an analysis of the feature at another track that makes it seem
less certain than Guy had originally thought, with all the media hype he
had seen about one of the runners in that race.
Off the Internet, back to the self-produced
PP's....."hmm, awful lot of first-time starters and shippers here...and
a lot of races with very even-looking fields over there..."
Back to the 'Net. Guy goes to the
TrackMaster site and downloads one FlashNet card and one TrackMaster card.
He looks at the FlashNet card to see if the even-looking fields have any
possible pace scenarios that might be spotted by looking at a different
view of the races. He checks the TrackMaster card to get current stats
for the trainers and horses in those races with so many first-time starters
and shippers.
Off the 'Net. Handicap, handicap.
Guy has selected several races that he thinks he can beat, made all the
notes he needs to make, marked his final contenders, noted possible bets
to be determined in part by the tote board tomorrow, and calls it a night.
Tomorrow, he'll be ready to go, rested, alert, and able to integrate whatever
body language information he can spot on the monitor and the odds he'll
see at his local simulcast outlet into his wagering.
A real handicapping in cyberspace
session!
Our Guy combined a traditional approach
with a state-of-the-art approach to blend the two into a methodology with
which he feels comfortable.
Other players may prefer to place
a greater emphasis on computer-generated factors. Some may use the Internet
only to get the program numbers, scratches, and weather forecasts. Still
others will handicap right from their monitors, using as little paper as
possible because they find it easier to work that way. And some will stick
with traditional handicapping but use past performances they print themselves
because they have great difficulty getting them any other way.
Whichever scenario it is, each of
these players will have a measurable edge over those who choose to ignore
this important changing facet of the game.
And that's what handicapping
in cyberspace is really all about. |