THANK YOU to all who wrote with positive comments.
Your email prompted me to follow up to the last column of racing at the
Fair Grounds, and to provide you with some useful handicapping information
to use, and to continue on your own for the rest of the meet.
These stats are based on the first three weeks
of the meet. I'm giving you a random sampling of info....after all, I can't
give away all my work, can I?
5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt Fast
9 races
5 races won by horses on the lead or within 1.5
lengths at second call
Other 4 races beaten lengths at second call ranged
from 3 to 6
Tossing out lowest odds winner, winning odds
ranged from 2.40 to 9.60 to 1
Winning post positions do NOT include these numbers:
1, 6, 9, 10, 11, 12
5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt Wet
7 races
4 races won by horses on the lead at second call
Other 3 races BL at second call ranged from 3.5
to 8.5
Tossing out lowest odds winner, winning odds
ranged from 2.10 to 14.60 to 1
Winning post positions do NOT include these numbers:
3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12
6 Furlongs Dirt Fast
54 races
33 races won by horses on the lead or within
2 lengths at second call
Other 21 races BL at second call ranged from
2.5 to 8.5
23 winners were less than 2-1, remaining range
was 2.20 to 20.4 to 1
Only 5 winners came from posts 10 or higher
---2 year olds
MC: 4 races, all winners came from no further
back at second call than 2.5 lengths
CL: 3 races, none further back than 2.5
lengths at second call
MSW: 4 races, no uniformity on lengths back at
second call
ALW-STK: 4 races, all on the lead at second call
All races: winners can come from any post position;
neither inside nor outside favored; even distribution
---Maiden Claiming AND Maiden Special Weight
9 races
Lengths back at second call range from 0 to 8.5;
wide variation
No winners from post position #1, rest
from #7 down except one from post #12
Lowest odds 1.2 to 1 for 32 winners, other all
3-1 up to 15-1
6 Furlongs Dirt Wet
10 races
One won by a horse 5 lengths back at second call;
all others were 3.5 or less
No winner paid more than 3.40 to 1
One winner from post position #6; all others
from 1 thru 4
1 Mile Dirt Fast
8 races
One won by a horse 4 lengths back at second call;
all others no more than 2.5 back
Odds range from .80 - 1 to 16 -1
Post positions even across all races, including
maiden, claiming and allowance
Turf Races
Let me summarize with a short but very valuable
piece of information if you haven't been keeping track yourself: unless
and until you see a change over more than a couple of days, favor early
speed on the grass, especially in the short races. Turf racing is usually
associated with closers, but right now at FG, the early speedsters are
to be preferred
As you can tell, I've been rather selective with
the info. But there are some real nuggets in here than will help steer
you off bad bets and focus on the real contenders who will find their way
into the winners circle and on to the tote board.
Good luck and good racing!