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More Fair Madness
by George Kaywood

Note: This column was originally written in 2000, but is archived here as an example of  how you can easily keep records on your own for any track that you play regularly to gain one more edge in your quest for winning tickets.

THANK YOU to all who wrote with positive comments. Your email prompted me to follow up to the last column of racing at the Fair Grounds, and to provide you with some useful handicapping information to use, and to continue on your own for the rest of the meet.

These stats are based on the first three weeks of the meet. I'm giving you a random sampling of info....after all, I can't give away all my work, can I?

5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt Fast

9 races
5 races won by horses on the lead or within 1.5 lengths at second call
Other 4 races beaten lengths at second call ranged from 3 to 6 
Tossing out lowest odds winner, winning odds ranged from 2.40 to 9.60 to 1
Winning post positions do NOT include these numbers: 1, 6, 9, 10, 11, 12

5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt Wet

7 races
4 races won by horses on the lead at second call
Other 3 races BL at second call ranged from 3.5 to 8.5 
Tossing out lowest odds winner, winning odds ranged from 2.10 to 14.60 to 1
Winning post positions do NOT include these numbers: 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12

6 Furlongs Dirt Fast

54 races
33 races won by horses on the lead or within 2 lengths at second call
Other 21 races BL at second call ranged from 2.5 to 8.5
23 winners were less than 2-1, remaining range was 2.20 to 20.4 to 1
Only 5 winners came from posts 10 or higher

---2 year olds

MC: 4 races, all winners came from no further back at second call than 2.5 lengths
CL:  3 races, none further back than 2.5 lengths at second call 
MSW: 4 races, no uniformity on lengths back at second call
ALW-STK: 4 races, all on the lead at second call
All races: winners can come from any post position; neither inside nor outside favored; even distribution

---Maiden Claiming AND Maiden Special Weight

9 races
Lengths back at second call range from 0 to 8.5; wide variation
No winners from post position #1,  rest from #7 down except one from post #12
Lowest odds 1.2 to 1 for 32 winners, other all 3-1 up to 15-1

6 Furlongs Dirt Wet

10 races
One won by a horse 5 lengths back at second call; all others were 3.5 or less
No winner paid more than 3.40 to 1
One winner from post position #6; all others from 1 thru 4

1 Mile Dirt Fast
 
8 races
One won by a horse 4 lengths back at second call; all others no more than 2.5 back
Odds range from .80 - 1 to 16 -1
Post positions even across all races, including maiden, claiming and allowance

Turf Races

Let me summarize with a short but very valuable piece of information if you haven't been keeping track yourself: unless and until you see a change over more than a couple of days, favor early speed on the grass, especially in the short races. Turf racing is usually associated with closers, but right now at FG, the early speedsters are to be preferred

As you can tell, I've been rather selective with the info. But there are some real nuggets in here than will help steer you off bad bets and focus on the real contenders who will find their way into the winners circle and on to the tote board.

Good luck and good racing!

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