A
Fair Madness
by George Kaywood
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In addition to eagerly anticipating
Thanksgiving (being one of the few days of the year on which eating to
excess is not only accepted but even encouraged in many quarters),
I love it because it's opening day at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans.
For about a dozen years now, with
a couple of notable exceptions I will explain later, it's been my favorite
US racetrack.
Reasons why it's my favorite track:
(1) There seems to be a tendency
for many to say "...that's cheap racing at the Fair Grounds," which is
a wonderful untruth. Thanks to the purses that have been pumped up by supplemental
slot machine money, There was one race carded today for $5,000 claimers,
but is there that much difference between this race and an $8,000 one at
Hollywood or Santa Anita?
I submit that a $5,000 claimer at
track A is not necessarily the same at a $5,000 claimer at Track B. Certainly
anyone other than a novice handicapper is aware of the "class-within-class"
phenomena discussed in a number of handicapping books. But we're not taking
about that. We're talking about the BEST of the overall "confirmed" $5,000
claimers that a trainer will take to the track that has more purse money
to offer. You see this at any track where you can hear the sounds of slot
machines inside--and that includes Fair Grounds. (And if you're not convinced,
look carefully at the trainers of these bread-and-butter horses who are
running at casino-associated tracks who never used to consider having a
stable at those particular tracks.)
The rest of today's card was as respectable
in terms of class and especially purses, as any other card, maybe even
a little higher, for a Monday.
"Cheap" by one set of standards;
"average to good" by another.
(2) The turf. This is the one notable
exception I mentioned before. A few years ago, the maintenance of the turf
course was just flat out HORRIBLE. In prior years, the turf was what I
like to call babied, with races coming off the turf for as long
as it took for the course to become dry and fit for racing. The turf remained
in excellent condition from the beginning of the meet to the end. Then,
for a few odd years, about 2/3 of the way through the season, the grass
looked and ran spotty along the homestretch and God knows how along the
rest of the course. If you keep a special set of turf records, spotlighting
times and bias at different distance, you can tell this quite easily.
Now, the turf is back to being extremely
well-cared-for again, indeed, babied, as it was a few years back,
and I expect it to return to what I consider its rightful place as one
of the best turf tracks in the country.
It's important to point out that
unless you do keep turf records, you will never really know how the turf
plays--at any track. Speaking from personal experience, the payoffs at
FG on the turf can be truly spectacular and not that difficult to find
for the serious turf fan. Most people, of course, won't take the time to
keep such records, which will always keep the values high. I marvel at
how even the locals never seem to get a handle on what works and what doesn't
on the grass at FG.
(3) The long stretch factor. The main track at FG can be a tiring course
that takes its toll even on what appear on paper to be front speed standouts.
Smart speed and/or pace handicappers and players who really understand
biases can catch pressers who can dominate enter cards if they do their
homework well.
(4) The trainers. The Big Names do their thing and everyone knows it.
Most horses trained by Thomas Amoss go off overvalued because his reputation
is well-known. But the exceptionally large number of trainers who run at
FG offers a trainer handicapper an opportunity to fashion spot plays that
will score big, if not as frequently as an Amoss horse, and return considerably
more.
Sound simple? It should, but beware--it's deceptively simple. The mutuels
can be worth it.
So if you see a guy ignoring the fans cheering their horses as they
turn for home at Hollywood, Santa Anita, or one of the Florida tracks populated
by snowbirds who have gone South for the winter, it just might be ME, or
any of the smaller but happy group of handicappers who are in the throes
of a "Fair" madness this winter.
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