We're about a month away from the 2001 Breeders' Cup (or World Thoroughbred Championships or Whatever the Hell NTRA Is Calling It This Week), and  the amount of coverage on the day is shifting into high gear as the PR machines of thoroughbred racing turn up the hype heat to capitalize on "Racing's Biggest Day."

What crap!

The Common Sense Bottom Line is this: in spite of the fact that it is a day of the best meeting the best in 7 races, what we have is a well-rounded card of racing that requires no more and no less handicapping than a good player should do for ANY day of racing.
As a handicapper, you should not let yourself get caught up into the hype and hoopla of the media circus which, unfortunately, includes even most of the mainstream racing media.

By my count, there are only two handicapping factors that are unique to the Breeders' Cup that are not unique to "ordinary" race days:

(1) The fact that you know that 99% of the horses entered in the BC races are TRYING--because of the huge purses in the races--and have not been entered  simply to "give 'em a race" (although even that may be questionable with the 8 non-Japanese slots allotted to horses for the Japan Cup Dirt Race on November 24, with a first place payoff of $1.18 million).

(2) The fact that there is a LOT of "stupid money" being bet, often helping to raise odds on legitmate contenders far above what they should be and  would be on other days, including Triple Crown days. Stupid money is uninformed wagers coming from the players who are out for the day of partying, the players who are huge races fans for maybe two or three days a year at most, who like to think they can handicap but are really pretenders and not contenders against you and me at the windows.

Other than these factors, it's a day of ...horse racing.

Fast horses meet fast horses in the BC Sprint---the same as any field of well-conditioned sprinters in any other race which pits contenders of roughly equal ability against one another. Pace and speed become prime considerations, whether the horses are worth millions each or would be priced in the lower thousands of the claiming ranks.

The juvenile races require the same handicapping other 2-year-old races demand. Players who try to tackle breeding and pedigree for one day who have never tried it before may well be disappointed.

Foreign horses? If you usually pass races where there are too many foreign entrants for comfort, you need to do the same on BC Day.

As I look back at the last half a dozen or so Breeders' Cup Days, I note that my best (read: most profitable) wins have come from the category of spot plays, and I wonder if that's not really the best way to go for the day--the same way that many players do on a regular basis the rest of the year.

In 1996, the Turf was won by Pilsudski, a turf horse whose record showed that he absolutely loved to run on grass, and was a simply amazing shipper. 3 countries in 4 weeks and 3 wins! Forget time, forget pace. Let's see what the guy looks like before the race: whoa! the jockey almost has to hold him back as he prances and fights the reins, wanting to RUN. At 13-1, a spot play that's not a brain buster, and a very satisfying win.

In 1995, when the Breeders' Cup was run in New York, it rained for almost 5 straight days and Belmont was a sea of mud. While not a student of breeding, it occurred to me that prior success on off tracks and/or pedigree might be the key to the Sprint, the same as on ANY race track that comes up muddy. I read a British fan's comment on a website bulletin board that the best mud horses by breeding and family history were Desert Stormer and Mr. Greeley. I gave them a shot based on this spot play setup, they ran one-two at 15-1 and 32-1 respectively, and the $2 exacta paid $733.00

I wish I could say that these wins were the result of absolutely brilliant handicapping, but I can't. They were wins that came about in the same manner that all players make great scores from time to time. I mention them here because they worked on "Racing's Greatest Day," not on an "ordinary" day, where they positively could do the same thing.

Most of my Breeders' Cup wagers are made on the basis of pace handicapping for those horses for whom I have fractional time information available. I will look at the racing success, layoffs, and shipping record of the foreign entries and use the best one or two purely as "saver" bets if I bet a race made up of a mixed bag of US and International runners. But if I see or hear a spot play that makes good sense on a solid, proven angle, I'll throw a few bucks down on one of those if the odds are moderate to high.

Maybe I'm jaded, or have been hanging around with some hardcore handicappers with attitudes too long. Maybe I'm tired of NBC's overkill and often just plain dumb coverage of the races. Maybe I'm fed up with hearing the Master of the Obvious Question, Mike Battaglia, "interview" trainers and jockeys who don't really give a rat's ass about his queries since they're in the middle of a pretty stressful workday.

Or maybe I'm right, and I've been overcome by Common Sense. 

Check with me a year from now.